This is the first part of of two lectures on Bayesian inference, inverse probability inference…or…coherent rational inference, the way any intelligent rational player should think about TWO uncertainties ( about some underlying state and about some diagnostic signal possibly related to or informative about that state) . This first lecture introduces the basic problem of inference via a game tree and introduces the logicians “truth table” to help organise thinking about two interrelated unknowns – states and signals. The second lecture , here , takes these ideas and uses them to develop the language of probability for inference problems – in games against people or in games against nature , easily understandable for any type and level of student. You may also find it helpful to look at the My Inference Tool post to help cement in your understanding of inverse inference ideas.

[…] lectures on how intelligent players reason about states and signals in a game ; the first is here This lecture uses the two practise problems from class (one on breast cancer screening, the other […]