A simple geometric tool for exploring implications of ambiguity about the basic belief-components of inverse probability reasoning: base rates of states (priors), and sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests (likelihoods).
[WolframCDF source=”https://strategicecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/ambiguityrighthandwp.cdf” CDFwidth=”689″ CDFheight=”524″ altimage=”https://strategicecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/imageforAmbiguousbeliefs.png”]

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