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You are here: Home / Archives for ambiguity

January 15, 2013 by jagfnz 1 Comment

Expressing and exploring ambiguous inductive inferences

A simple geometric tool for exploring implications of ambiguity about the basic belief-components of inverse probability reasoning: base rates of states (priors), and sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests (likelihoods).
[WolframCDF source=”https://strategicecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/ambiguityrighthandwp.cdf” CDFwidth=”689″ CDFheight=”524″ altimage=”https://strategicecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/imageforAmbiguousbeliefs.png”]

(to download a larger version with control bars on the left side click here [wpdm_file id=1] – you will need Wolfram’s free computable document format cdf player to view and interact with this file. (just like you need a plug in to read pdfs  in your browser)  – click here obtain it  from wolfram’s site – installation is straightforward and seamless ..but you will have to provide a small amount of “registration” type information to Wolfram –  they have been around as long as Apple and Adobe , much longer than Google, and…are as trustworthy …. so don’t be put off by this. Having the cdf player on your local machine is well worthwhile)

Filed Under: beliefs-uncertainty-inference Tagged With: ambiguity, bayes theorem, inductive inference, inverse probability, uncertainty

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