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Oct
25
2007
uncertaintysignalsbayes theoreminverse inferencegametheory 2007 Posted by John, 25-10-07 4:21am
Lecture 16, 2007
johnhappyThe second of two lectures on uncertain beliefs about two things . In our basic example one thing we're uncertain about is underlying ability that is difficult to observe directly and the second thing is a more readily observed, but also ambiguous, signal about that ability, like an aptitude test score. We use the truth table approach to get a handle on basic ideas, then explore how to think about uncertainties about our truth table uncertainties: uncertain beliefs about uncertainly held beliefs.

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