This is one of two lectures thinking deeply and critically about uncertainty in situations of strategic interaction. The first part of the lecture develops the operational subjective concept of probability, using the prices/odds set by the sports betting bookies at NZ's TAB to show how subjective probability, while personal, can be measured, by asking agents to "put their money where their mouth " is. The second part uses Gigerenzer's "natural frequency" method of communicating and thinking about uncertainty to explain inverse probability and Bayes theorem (no formulas please - only a "truth table" and, if you're a visual person, a graph, to develop "ballpark" boundedly rational assessments for inverse proabilities.